🚨 Q2 Earnings Prediction
HIMS reports earnings after the bell on Monday, Aug 4. Here are our estimates.
This is our most comprehensive earnings prediction yet. Alongside our Q2 revenue forecast, we’ve included estimates for total subscribers, gross margin, operating expenses, EPS, and adj. EBITDA — plus an early look at Q3 revenue. As always, we’ll keep publishing weekly updates through the end of the quarter 🚀
A quick note on methodology:
The forecast blends Bloomberg Second Measure credit card data with Google Trends. We may adjust this approach over time based on how well the model performs.
Our coefficient of determination ("R squared") is .99, which gives us confidence in our predictions. The two potential snags are that the sample size is limited, and the deferred revenue is inherently difficult to model with complete precision. Given these factors, I think it’s reasonable to assume some error, maybe 1-2% to the upside or downside.
This is NOT financial advice:
The following predictions are simply our best estimates for HIMS Q2 revenue/earnings and Q3 guidance.
Track record:
For both Q4‘24 and Q1’25, our predictions were within 1% of actual revenue.
Coming soon:
We’ll be releasing an updated valuation model next week for premium subscribers — with our bear, base, and bull case price targets.
Without further ado….