🚨 HIMS VALUATION MODEL
The 2nd edition of our official valuation model, updated after Q1'25 earnings
"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." — Warren Buffett
This is a living, breathing model. As promised the first time we released it, we will maintain and update this model for as long as Hims House exists. If you have suggestions, just reply to this email. I’ll do my best to incorporate them going forward.
Here’s what the model includes:
Revenue breakdown
Price targets
Discounted cash flow
Disclaimer: The following is not financial advice.
1. Revenue Breakdown
BEAR CASE:
Revenue MISSES company guidance this year, then slows to +22% growth next year and +12% by 2030. Subscriber growth drops to +10% YoY by 2028. Given the recent $1B capital raise, plans for international expansion, and the expected launch of new verticals later this year, we view this scenario as overly bearish.
BASE CASE:
Revenue HITS the midpoint of company guidance this year. Subscribers grow at +25% for two years, +20% for the next two, then +17% thereafter. Revenue growth steps down from +59% this year to +27% in 2026, tapering to +19% by 2030. Importantly, this base case aligns with the company’s long-term revenue target of $6.5B by 2030 set during the Q1’25 earnings call.
BULL CASE:
Revenue EXCEEDS company guidance this year by 8.5% ($200M). Bullish, yes, but we think reasonable given the Novo deal, plans to launch TRT/menopause later in the year, and the fact that Hims has exceeded guidance by an average of 30% in previous years. Subscribers reach 10M by 2030, matching CEO Andrew Dudum’s Q4’24 guidance. Revenue growth slows steadily, landing at 25% YoY by decade’s end — and exceeding the “long-term 2030 target” of $6.5B by close to 50%.
🔒 The following sections are for premium subscribers only: