Best of Hims House
The top conversations from the Hims House Discord community (Jan + early Feb)
Welcome to "The Best of Hims House" — your window into the top conversations from the Hims House Discord community. Want to join the conversation? Hop in the Discord!
1. GLP-1 Shortage Dynamics and Hims’ Strategy
The first hot topic was semaglutide—the key ingredient in Ozempic/Wegovy—and how its current shortage allows Hims compound the medication under FDA guidelines. Participants debated how ending the shortage might shift Hims’ revenue streams, marketing, and overall strategy.
Shortage isn’t permanent: Many stressed that the shortage won't last forever. As one investor put it: “It’s reasonable to assume that sooner or later, semaglutide will no longer be listed as in shortage. But the question is when.” This uncertainty sparked deeper discussion on Hims’ backup plans if the FDA declares the shortage over. Participants highlighted Hims’ newer categories (like oral kits and alternative injectables such as liraglutide) designed to capture customer demand.
Revenue impact may be limited: Another investor noted, “The impact on earnings may be limited if Hims can migrate semaglutide users to oral meds or other branded injectables.” In other words, even if revenue dips temporarily, profit margins might stay solid if most weight loss customers stick around. Others mentioned Hims’ cautious forecasting, suggesting that management might already factor in a potential shortage end to avoid surprises.
Diversification is key: The community pointed out that Hims has steadily broadened its pipeline to avoid relying on one product. “They will keep compounding semaglutide so long as it’s legal,” wrote one member, “but you can bet they have robust plans for alternative GLP-1 offerings and weight loss kits.”
FDA stance and legal complexities: Meanwhile, discussions also touched on the FDA’s position and related legal issues. Some highlighted ongoing court cases that might extend the shortage longer than expected, while others said, “We should be clear-eyed that if sema goes off shortage, revenue from that business line [will] drop meaningfully.” Still, the consensus is that Hims is well-positioned with its diversified offerings, personalized prescriptions, and broader weight loss suite—ensuring that even if the semaglutide shortage ends, many patients will transition to alternative treatments.
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2. Churn, CAC, and LTV Metrics
In the #company channel, investors recently spent some time examining churn rate, CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost), and LTV (Lifetime Value)—all critical metrics that shape Hims’ long-term profitability. The debate centered on whether Hims’ marketing spend drives loyal subscribers or merely attracts short-term users.
Net new subscribers scrutinized: The idea of “net new subscribers” was hotly debated. One investor asserted: “If Hims’ marketing cost is around $800 per net new sub, and if that sub only sticks around a few months, how are they profitable?” This led to clarifications that marketing costs spread across multiple product categories—not just weight loss. As another contributor noted: “We do not, and this is the essence of my thesis... have exact data in the same way Apple doesn’t publish iPhone unit volume. Hims lumps together a range of SKUs.”
Customer acquisition insights: One participant explained that Hims generally expects to recoup acquisition costs within a year, meaning “Their cumulative gross profit from that user should exceed the marketing outlay in roughly 12 months.” Others pointed out that focusing solely on “net new sub cost” can be misleading, as it ignores revenue from long-term, retained subscribers. In fact, a newly acquired customer might start in one category but later expand into multiple SKUs, effectively lengthening their LTV.
Debating churn calculations: Churn calculations sparked very lively debate. Some used simple ratio formulas—dividing total net adds by marketing spend—while others factored in cohorts, product mix, and the intangible value of brand-building. “It’s more art than science,” one participant joked, highlighting how Hims’ lumping of all marketing expenses complicates direct attribution to specific cohorts.
Bottom line: The consensus was that Hims’ churn is acceptable for a telehealth model, especially given that usage durations (e.g., for hair loss or mental health) can be long. Evidence shows older cohorts are “maturing into robust repeat customers,” sustaining LTV over time. Even if short-term metrics like net subscriber additions seem costly, Hims’ multi-product strategy and improving brand loyalty point to strong underlying unit economics.
3. Personalized Compounding, Regulatory Nuances, and Competitive Moat
One of Hims’ standout advantages is its ability to customize medications—from weight loss formulas (potentially combining semaglutide with other agents) to hair loss solutions (merging finasteride, minoxidil, biotin, etc.) and even sexual health treatments. One of the leading doctors in the group shared clinical insight, emphasizing: “Combining active ingredients for hair or ED in a single custom formulation can keep patients locked into Hims because no local pharmacy can just replicate that same mixture.”
FDA Scrutiny and Compounding Limits: The group pointed out that personalized compounding draws FDA attention, requiring Hims to maintain dosage differences (often at least a 10% deviation from commercially available meds) and to compound only when a shortage is declared or for specific patient needs. This, of course, raises questions about how long Hims can hold its compounding advantage for GLP-1s once semaglutide is no longer in shortage.
Locking in Subscribers: The consensus was that if subscribers experience better results with a unique compound, they're less likely to switch providers. “It effectively locks them in,” one investor noted. Another claimed that this approach “differentiates them from typical telemedicine or pharmacy chains that simply hand out generics.”
Scaling Personalization: Community members also believed that Hims’ deeper investment in 503A/503B compounding facilities underscores management’s commitment to “personalization at scale.” This capability to tailor pharmaceuticals while integrating a frictionless telehealth experience is seen as a core moat, making it tough for retail pharmacies or new digital entrants to replicate.
4. New Categories, Menopause Launch, and Hims’ Branding Approach
Hims is pushing into fresh areas—menopause solutions, hormone replacement therapy, and broader women’s health. An leaked internal message to Hims doctors from Dr. Pat Caroll hinted that the menopause launch is set for 2025. One participant noted: “Hims historically times new category rollouts to accelerate subscription growth right when older verticals mature,” suggesting that advanced planning keeps the brand with a constant stream of new offerings.
Branding and Market Presence: These expansions align with Hims’ overall style, which many describe as “highly frictionless, approachable, and designed for mainstream recognition.” As one doctor explained: “They’re definitely pushing a message of personalization, presenting a modern interface that’s more inviting than a typical clinic. That resonates with younger, digital-savvy patients.” Members also praised Hims’ marketing—from eye-catching packaging and influencer tie-ins to a notable “system is broken” Super Bowl ad. One contributor recounted a Hims executive saying, “There are a lot of avenues to us being able to provide personalized treatment for folks well into the future… That is part of why we chose to run this advertisement: not only to talk to customers, but to raise the issues amongst regulators, legislatures and folks who can make a change.”
Balancing Ad Spend with Retention: The group did note that heavy ad spends could strain margins if not paired with strong retention. However, the consensus was upbeat: “Their average order values are climbing, their brand is in ascendancy, and new categories like menopause will expand the total addressable market. This is exactly how you build a standout DTC healthcare platform.” Many believe that successfully launching menopause and other chronic-condition solutions (like weight management and hormone therapies) could boost Hims’ household name status and attract a larger female demographic. Ultimately, the combination of brand trust, personalized medications, and multi-product usage is seen as the unstoppable trifecta for Hims’ future.