🚨 Q1 Earnings Prediction
HIMS reports earnings after the bell on Monday, May 5. Here are our estimates.
This is our most comprehensive earnings prediction yet. Alongside our Q1 revenue forecast, we’ve included estimates for gross margin, operating expenses, EPS, and adj. EBITDA — plus an early look at Q2 revenue. As always, we’ll keep publishing weekly updates through the end of the quarter 🚀
A quick note on methodology:
The forecast blends Bloomberg Second Measure credit card data with Google Trends. We may adjust this approach over time based on how well the model performs.
Our coefficient of determination ("R squared") is .988, which gives us confidence in our predictions. The two potential snags are that the sample size is limited, and the deferred revenue is inherently difficult to model with complete precision. Given these factors, I think it’s reasonable to assume some error, maybe 2.5%, to the upside or downside.
This is NOT financial advice:
The following predictions are simply our best estimates for HIMS Q1 revenue/earnings and Q2 guidance.
Track record:
For Q4‘24, our prediction was within 1% of actual revenue.
Coming soon:
Following HIMS’ Q1 earnings and updated guidance, we’ll be releasing an updated valuation model next week for premium subscribers — with our bear, base, and bull case price targets.
On the podcast front: our Q1 earnings recap drops next week, and our interview with Mark Cuban the week after.
Without further ado….