Hims Daily (May 6, 2025)

Day 1 of the short squeeze 🍋

Stock Price: $49.49

• Today: +$7.61 (+18.16%)

• Year-to-date: +$25.31 (+104.66%)

• Q2-to-date: +$19.94 (+67.47%)

🚨 Our next prediction for Q2 revenue drops later this week. The last two quarters, we landed within 1% of actual revenue — beating every analyst on Wall Street 🚀 Upgrade to paid for access.

What’s Happening

• Panic open, then near‑vertical squeeze. Shares were down -8% pre-market, gapped down to $38, and then nearly immediately reversed, ripping to $50 and closing just below at +18% — HIMS’ best single day since February

  • Monster volume of more than 150M shares (6x the 90‑day average)

• Short‑squeeze mechanics are now in play: Roughly 33% of the float remains sold short, and based on data on available shares to borrow, it appears shorts spent most of the day doubling down on their bets. (New short interest data comes out on Friday)

  • Some traders framed the action today as “day‑one of a squeeze” 🔥

• Earnings beat still reverberating. Q1 delivered 111% YoY revenue growth, $49.5M in net income, and sub-40% marketing spend. Management raised the long-term bar with a 2030 target of $6.5B+ revenue and 20% EBITDA, though many investors expect Hims to hit those marks by 2028–29. They also named ex-Amazon leader Nader Kabbani as COO. Combined with the Wegovy partnership, those tailwinds easily overshadowed the soft Q2 guide.

• Street split, retail relentless. Needham reiterated Buy with a $61 PT and Canaccord with a $68 PT; but Citi, BofA, Piper and Morgan Stanley stuck to $30‑$40 targets or lower. Retail flow DOMINATED the tape

• Outperformed a red macro backdrop. Broader indices sagged ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and chatter about potential pharma tariffs, yet HIMS added more than $2B in market cap

Catalysts

• FOMC Meeting tomorrow

• Novo Nordisk’s earnings/GLP‑1 commentary later this week

• May 12 - MARK CUBAN is coming to the Hims House podcast

• Pharma tariffs?

• Upcoming OFA vs. FDA case on semaglutide

• Potential for partnership with Eli Lilly

• Any incremental details on the Novo Nordisk roadmap

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