Welcome to "The Best of Hims House" — your window into the top conversations from the Hims House Discord community.
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1) Semaglutide, Tirzepatide, and Liraglutide
No shocker here… GLP-1s dominated the conversation, with focus on the FDA's shortage designations, ongoing legal tussles, and speculation about how Hims would adapt its business strategy once semaglutide and tirzepatide come off shortage.
Some investors expect Hims to pivot to liraglutide — another type of GLP-1 — once semaglutide is removed from shortage. However, liraglutide famously pales in comparison to semaglutide and tirzepatide in terms of both ease of use AND effectiveness:
“Liraglutide sucks. Get that off everyone’s model. It’s been around forever and coming off patent for a reason… no one wants it.”
Yet, others noted it still has fans.
“Liraglutide definitely has its own fanbase. After all, there are over 16,000 members in the Reddit group.”
Much of the discussion centered on whether semaglutide’s shortage would be officially ended by the FDA any day now and whether a final court decision on tirzepatide—the other major GLP-1 in question—would set a precedent. Bayside said:
“I think it’s a coin flip. The FDA clearly wants these shortages lifted, but Novo’s production capacity may not be strong enough to justify the call.”
The group weighed how big of a revenue hit Hims might take once compounding eventually scales back. Some insisted Hims can channel those weight-loss patients into alternative oral regimens (“the oral kits are working,” one investor said). There was a shared view that if compounding for semaglutide tapers off in 2025, Hims has already reaped strong brand recognition and can keep customers with other offerings
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2) The Personalization Puzzle
The group debated whether Hims can continue personalizing GLP-1 prescriptions after the FDA shortage ends. The discussion centered on federal regulations, particularly around what constitutes a "significant difference" from brand drugs.
One investor cited law 21 U.S.C. § 353a, arguing that compounded drugs aren't "essentially copies" if they provide significant differences for individual patients. However, another member countered that if simple modifications could bypass patents, it would have happened with other expensive drugs.
The debate also explored 503A vs. 503B regulations. 503A allows patient-specific compounding but limits interstate distribution without an FDA Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). 503B permits larger-scale compounding but restricts producing copies of available brand drugs. Bayside highlighted the "5% rule" - without an MOU, only 5% of prescriptions can cross state lines.
Once the FDA shortage ends, Hims' personalization strategy faces increased scrutiny. Some members suggested Hims might negotiate with manufacturers or pivot to alternatives. Bayside speculated about potential talks with Novo Nordisk, suggesting Hims' public stance on personalization could be negotiating leverage. Ultimately, the community remains divided: some believe Hims can legally personalize post-shortage by proving patient-specific needs, while others expect resistance from pharmaceutical companies and regulators. As a doctor in the group noted:
"If anybody can thread the needle, it's Hims, given their 503B facility, legal team, and data-driven approach."
Regardless of the outcome, members agreed Hims has options: success means a competitive advantage in compounded GLP-1s; if blocked, they can redirect patients to alternatives like oral kits while maintaining their position in weight loss, albeit with lower margins.
3) Amazon Buyout Rumors and Broader M&A Speculation
While most viewed this topic as unrealistic, the notion that Amazon might acquire Hims popped up. Bayside shared a Fool.com article predicting Amazon’s next “big buyout” in telehealth, prompting a split: some believed the synergy was obvious—others were unconvinced Amazon wants an established brand with such a distinct marketing identity. As one investor reasoned:
“They could buy the company, grow the business, and let it keep its own brand identity—like with Audible. Smart for Amazon, but as an investor, I’d prefer Hims to grow more on its own first.”
A smaller camp felt that no one really wants “Amazon as their healthcare provider,” so the synergy might flop. Still, the speculation underscored how Hims’ brand strength is becoming valuable enough to catch a giant’s eye.
4) Brand Strength, Q4 Guidance, and 2025 Growth Prospects
Beyond the swirl of compounding news and buyout theories, there was plenty of pure bullishness on how Hims is performing overall. The company’s updated guidance for Q4 2024—aiming at $465M–$470M revenue and mid-teens EBITDA margins—had many participants pointing to longer-run potential.
“Hims is in the absolute best position to take advantage of semaglutide going off shortage—whenever that finally happens. They’ve got a holistic plan: GLP-1 injection, Liraglutide, or even an oral kit. Short term there may be noise, but long term they’re set.”
And for perspective on just how central the brand has become…
“My friend who’s chronically overweight heard about HERS specifically and wanted to try it—she didn’t even flinch at which medication she’d be prescribed. That’s brand power.”
Finally, many noted that after the post-earnings jump, the stock stayed somewhat range-bound due to FDA overhang. Yet the group widely expects these “GLP-1 uncertainties” to resolve at some point this year, clearing the runway for Hims to expand categories beyond hair loss, ED, and weight management—and possibly introduce new lines (menopause, HRT, etc.).
Closing Thoughts
Overall, the discussions of the past week coalesced around three major storylines:
Continued wrangling over GLP-1 shortages and how that influences Hims’ growth trajectory.
Personalization as a potential legal and commercial pivot if shortages end sooner than later.
Hims’ robust brand momentum and fundamentals, which most believe can weather any near-term storm caused by compounding regulations.
In short, the chat’s consensus was that while the GLP-1 regulatory dance stirs up near-term drama, the long-term outlook for Hims remains strong—particularly given its brand, product expansion, and growing telehealth ecosystem. Or as one investor put it succinctly:
“Let the real business model walk the talk. Once the GLP-1 dust settles, they’ll keep winning.”